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Released: Monday, March 4, 2019
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. was Unchanged in January
NOTE: The partial federal government shutdown that occurred in late December and January resulted in delays of some of the underlying components data that are used to produce estimates of the composite indexes. This interim release of the U.S. LEI for January 2019 reflects the most up to date data released by the source agencies and updates the preliminary results initially published on February 21, 2019.
Please note that building permits data is still not available for January 2019. The Conference Board has used its standard procedure of statistical imputations to fill in the missing data in order to publish the Leading Economic Index.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for theU.S. was unchanged in January (according to new estimates), remaining at 111.3 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent decline in December, and a 0.1 percent increase in November.
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in January to 105.7 (2016 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in December, and a 0.2 percent increase in November.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.4 percent in January to 106.8 (2016 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in December and a 0.4 percent increase in November.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:
Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions
For full press release and technical notes:
For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.
The next release is scheduled for Thursday, March 21 at 10 A.M. ET.
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