The Conference Board uses cookies to improve our website, enhance your experience, and deliver relevant messages and offers about our products. Detailed information on the use of cookies on this site is provided in our cookie policy. For more information on how The Conference Board collects and uses personal data, please visit our privacy policy. By continuing to use this Site or by clicking "OK", you consent to the use of cookies. 
Global Business Cycle Indicators

US

Press Releases

Latest
Archive

Data

Purchase Data

Latest Press Release

Please download related PDFs on the upper right corner of this page.

Released: Monday, March 4, 2019

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. was Unchanged in January

NOTE: The partial federal government shutdown that occurred in late December and January resulted in delays of some of the underlying components data that are used to produce estimates of the composite indexes. This interim release of the U.S. LEI for January 2019 reflects the most up to date data released by the source agencies and updates the preliminary results initially published on February 21, 2019.

Please note that building permits data is still not available for January 2019. The Conference Board has used its standard procedure of statistical imputations to fill in the missing data in order to publish the Leading Economic Index.

 

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for theU.S. was unchanged in January (according to new estimates), remaining at 111.3 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent decline in December, and a 0.1 percent increase in November.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in January to 105.7 (2016 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in December, and a 0.2 percent increase in November.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.4 percent in January to 106.8 (2016 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in December and a 0.4 percent increase in November.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

 

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance

Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials

ISM® Index of New Orders

Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

Building permits, new private housing units

Stock prices, 500 common stocks

Leading Credit Index™

Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds

Average consumer expectations for business conditions

For full press release and technical notes:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

The next release is scheduled for Thursday, March 21 at 10 A.M. ET.

Professional Contacts at The Conference Board:

Indicator Program: indicators@conference-board.org

Media Contacts:

Carol Courter:
1 212 339 0232
carol.courter@conference-board.org

Joseph DiBlasi:
1 781 308 7935
joseph.diblasi@conference-board.org

All data contained herein are protected by United States and international copyright laws. The data displayed are provided for informational purposes only and may only be accessed, reviewed, and/or used in with the permission accordance of The Conference Board consistent with a subscriber or license agreement and/or The Conference Board’s Terms of Use. Except as expressly permitted by The Conference Board or applicable law, the data and analysis contained herein may not be used, redistributed, republished, or reposted by any means.

Download related PDFs

Technical Notes
Underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs

Straight Talk November 2018

StraightTalk® Global Economic Outlook 2019: On Top of the World…Looking Over the Edge